June 14, 2009
Disputed Iran election leads to protests and crackdown
- As we await Valatan's backgrounder on the Iran elections, some help to understand what's going down:
* Things to Keep an Eye on in Iran
* Wikipedia, of course
* Hopefully the servers at BigSoccer.com can withstand being linked to by the NYTimes.
Here are my bulleted thoughts from half-following this admidst dissertation-writing:
1) This is highly irregular behaviour from the Iranian government. Traditionally, they have been more than willing to let reformists take the Presidency, which can be overruled by the Supreme Ayatollahs anyway (which is why the bloviating about Ahmedinijad is something that I've always found absurd--the Iranian President is largely a figurehead, particularly on foreign policy). They have typically restricted Democracy by overruling the civilian government, by striking candidates from the rolls, and other similar techniques. Outright vote fraud is extremely uncommon from them. Why Khameni felt the need to do this is, to me, the million dollar question behind all of this.
1a) Vote fraud is very likely to have happened here, as the returns reported by the government have not matched historical patterns from past elections. Also, the Ayatollah Khameni immediately certified the results, rather than the more traditional three day waiting period that has taken place historically in order to verify the validity of the vote.
2) It's getting violent--I've read that some of the people on the inside are comparing the mood on the street to te way things were in 1979. Certainly, there has</b> been a lot of evidence of a liberalization of Iranian culture reaching the West, and Iran has a populace that is more educated and less willing to tolerate an Authoritarian government than, say, Saudi Arabia.
3)Domestically, this probably discredits engagement-style policies, at least for a while--it pretty much paints Iran as a bad faith actor, and this example will probably be used to colour other dictators, like Raúl Casto and Kim Jong-Il. I still tink this criticism is probably ill-informed and a mistake, but expect Conservatives to be very loud about engagement in the near future, using this mess as an example. Of course, expect no discussion of Bush's engagement with/endorsement of the Saudi Royal Family, Karimov Islam (his government boiled people to death), or Hosni Mubarak. But I digress
4) Who knows what sort of insanity this will cause if it does boil over into a coup or outright civil war. Iran shares a border with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Political unrest there probably won't serve to stabilize these other places, to say the least.
5) Don't take this as an expression of love for the West amongst Iran's middle-class. The 1979 revolution was probably more an expression of anger at the CIA-installed government of the Shah than it ever was an endorsement of radical Islam. Just because people on the street are pissed at the Ayatollahs doesn't mean that they've forgotten previous ill-treatment at the hands of the Americans.
6) Do you guys read Juan Cole's Informed Comment? He's really good on Middle-Eastern policy.
Dammit, my link to Persepolis was botched. Ah well
American activists are now engaging in denial of service attacks on Iranian state-run websites.
Also, check out this video of street protests from the BBC Farsi service.
Ahmadinejad rally photoshopped to appear larger - sad shooping.
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This page on HuffPo seems to be "liveblogging" throughout the day with not only news updates but twitpics and youtube videos from the scene.
posted by natedogg at 02:45PM CST on June 14